The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of major global currencies, is holding on to modest gains that began in the Asian session on Thursday, remaining above the psychologically important 102.00 level. The index sits close to a two-week high set on Wednesday as investors await key US macroeconomic data that could set the next market direction.

Preliminary US GDP estimates and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index will be released today. Market attention on these releases stems from their relevance for the likely path of Federal Reserve policy amid expectations of a possible rate hike in December. Stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations of tighter policy and support further DXY gains. If the data come in below consensus, the market reaction is likely to be limited — not least because the Fed already signalled a hawkish stance on Wednesday while pausing the tightening cycle.

As expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its October meeting. The decision was taken by a 10–2 vote: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted for a 25-basis-point increase. At the post-meeting press conference, officials stressed they continue to monitor the persistence of inflationary pressure and geopolitical risks. Those factors, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, are likely to support the US dollar and the DXY index.

Against the backdrop of Middle East escalation, reports say US Vice President J.D. Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, seeking to restart peaceful dialogue. This comes amid President Donald Trump's statements about possible resumption of military action in the coming weeks. US officials have reportedly warned several Middle Eastern states and allies to prepare for a potential short but large-scale military campaign against Iran after the midterm elections scheduled for November 3.

At the same time, regional mediators — notably Qatar — are trying to revive talks between Washington and Tehran to prevent further escalation. Despite diplomatic efforts, a geopolitical risk premium remains priced in, suggesting that corrective dips in the DXY are likely to be viewed by the market as buying opportunities and that any pullbacks will be limited in scope.

Bulls, however, will need to see a confident close above horizontal resistance around 102.50 before adding long positions in anticipation of a continuation of the uptrend that began from the September low and aims to retest the October high.

During overnight trading, the correction found support near the 20-day SMA. Immediate resistance is at 102.25, followed by the significant cycle high around 102.50. A decisive break above that level would set the stage for a more active push toward the October peak. Oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage.