Gold weakened after the Federal Reserve decision, which kept rates unchanged but offered almost no clear guidance on the next step. Silver fell 2.3% to $52.75 and is down nearly 13% for the month. Platinum and palladium also declined.

The Fed decision was no surprise for gold. The Committee voted 10–2 to hold rates, but the market has already priced in a December hike because persistently high energy prices make it harder to tame inflation. That matters for the metal because gold pays no interest, and expectations of tighter policy weigh on it. Uncertainty was increased by Kevin Warsh's remark that the number of meetings with rate changes may be reduced from eight to six per year.

Today the market will receive inflation data. The PCE price index for September — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — will indicate what to expect for December. The consensus is for core PCE to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year (prior 0.2% and 3.0%). If the prints confirm or exceed forecasts, the odds of a December hike will rise, and gold will face further downward pressure.

Gold has traded around $4,000 all week, and traders are clearly in wait-and-see mode. The metal bounced from key technical support near $3,970, and a tug-of-war continues between short-term momentum sellers and long-term buyers. For a meaningful rally, gold needs to clear $4,070 and then $4,230.

External risks also matter. Gold is down about 3% in October and is heading for a second consecutive monthly decline. Another sell-off in AI stocks could push the metal lower, as investors sell gold to cover equity losses.

I believe gold is unlikely to move far from $4,000 until the inflation release and new Fed signals. We will most likely see another test of support near $3,954, and if that fails, the decline could accelerate. A sustained reversal higher requires a weaker dollar, cheaper oil, and softer inflation data — none of which are fully in place yet. So in the coming days I expect more pressure on the metal rather than a confident rebound.

Technical picture: buyers need to take nearest resistance at $4,062 to target $4,124, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farther target is around $4,192. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of $4,000; if they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold to $3,954, with the prospect of extending to $3,906.